Declining U.S. enrollment puts hundreds of schools at risk of closure

SACRAMENTO, United States, Oct. 6 (Xinhua) — Faced with shrinking student populations and budget constraints, school districts across the United States are grappling with difficult decisions about closing and consolidating under-enrolled schools.
A new study published at the end of September by the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, a leading education reform think tank in the United States, identified nearly 500 public schools nationwide that were both chronically low-performing and had experienced substantial enrollment declines since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
The study found that almost one in 12 public schools in the United States, or about 5,100 schools, saw enrollment drop by more than 20 percent between the 2019-20 and 2022-23 school years. Schools previously identified by states as low-performing were more than twice as likely to experience such large enrollment declines.
Demographic shifts were a key factor driving the trend. According to a recent Bellwether Education Partners report cited in the study, birth rates in the United States had fallen 14 percent over the past decade. This low birth rate led to shrinking elementary and middle school populations, with high schools expected to see declines soon.
California, hosting the nation’s largest school systems by population, has about 40 schools on the list of 500 schools at risk of closure. The state experienced a significant population exodus heading into 2023.
In San Francisco, public school enrollment has dropped by more than 4,000 students since 2017, according to data from the California Department of Education. The San Francisco Unified School District has to consider closing or merging schools.
Continuing to operate buildings and schools meant spreading “our resources more thin,” said Laura Dudnick, a district spokesperson.
In Florida, the discussion of school closures has begun in several counties. Hillsborough’s school board closed several schools this year, and Broward’s school board was considering a proposal, reported the Tampa Bay News last week.
The Duval County School Board has recently approved the first step in a process that could lead to closing six elementary schools and consolidating their students into other campuses for the 2025-26 school year. The changes aim to reduce operating costs and better use sales tax revenue amid rising construction costs and declining enrollment.
According to local media outlet News4JAX’s analysis, the majority of the students who would be affected by these proposed consolidations are disproportionately minority and economically disadvantaged.
The trend of declining enrollment was projected to intensify in the coming years.
Public schools enrolled 49 million students across the country in 2023, according to the latest data from the National Center for Education Statistics. The center projects that the student population will drop to 46.9 million by 2031, a loss of more than 2.1 million from 2023.
The Fordham Institute study showed that schools in high-poverty neighborhoods, schools in urban areas, and charter schools were particularly vulnerable to enrollment decline and that the trend would especially hurt students in underserved communities.
The study said that as schools contend with declining enrollment and the imminent expiration of billions of dollars in pandemic-related emergency funding, they may face increasingly severe budgetary constraints, potentially compromising the quality of education.
Admitting the difficulty facing district officials, the study said the situation in some communities had become “increasingly untenable — costly, inefficient, and educationally ineffective.”
For instance, in Chicago, Illinois, where about 35 percent of classroom seats are now unfilled, nearly three in five school buildings are underutilized. In Broward, Florida, 67 schools operate at less than 70 percent capacity.
However, closing schools can be a contentious process. Research showed that forcing students to switch schools can be traumatic and potentially harmful, especially if they end up at lower-performing campuses. ■